April 14, 2009

Worst Global Warming Impacts Still Avoidable

"So what would the world's temperatures, and the planet, look like in 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continued as is? And if they were cut by 70 percent?

Researchers at a well-known climate center asked those questions and used a computer model to conclude that it'd be catastrophic if unchecked, but manageable if the world could reduce gases by that much.

"This research indicates that we can no longer avoid significant warming during this century," Warren Washington, the study's lead author, said in a statement. "But if the world were to implement this level of emission cuts, we could stabilize the threat of climate change and avoid catastrophe."

The computer simulation by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., projected that unchecked levels would mean an Earth 4 degrees warmer. But a 70 percent emissions cut would limit the increase to about 2 degrees, the study found.

Other projections if emissions were cut by 70 percent:

  • Sea level rise due to thermal expansion from warming waters would be about 5.5 inches instead of 8.7 inches. But either scenario still projects significant sea level rise from melting ice sheets and glaciers.
  • Arctic summer sea ice would shrink by about a quarter and stabilize by 2100, as opposed to shrinking at least three-quarters and continuing to melt.
  • Arctic warming would be reduced by almost half, helping preserve fisheries, sea birds, polar bears and other wildlife.
  • Significant regional changes in precipitation would be cut in half. The U.S. Southwest would not be as dry, and the U.S. Northeast and Canada would not see as much rain as under an unchecked scenario.
  • The climate system would stabilize by about 2100, instead of continuing to warm."
ORIGINAL SOURCE: MSNBC

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