The researchers analyzed their data for other variables that could influence mortality rates — insect infestations, forest fires, and increased competition among trees for resources. But based on the way in which the forests were growing, the study found that those factors were unlikely causes of increased mortality rates.
Rather, the researchers isolated an approximately one-degree Celsius increase in temperature in the western United States over the last 30 years as one of the major causal factors.
The study, to be published in Friday's edition of the journal Science, found that mortality rates for trees in the old-growth plots in the Pacific Northwest — including parts of southern British Columbia — had doubled in 17 years. Forests in California and other states had less dramatic numbers.
The interior states — like Arizona, Colorado and Idaho — had tree mortality rates that doubled every 29 years. The mortality rates change incrementally every year, the researchers say.
"We may only be talking about an annual tree mortality rate changing from 1 per cent a year to 2 per cent a year, an extra tree here and there," study author Mark Harmon, professor of forest ecology at Oregon State University, said in a statement.
"But over time, a lot of small numbers can add up. The ultimate implications for our forests and environment are huge."
The increases in mortality rates are replicated across all trees at every elevation, regardless of species or size.
The study, which the researchers said is the first of its kind on temperate forests, gathered data on 76 long-term forest plots over a 50-year period for analysis. All of the forest areas studied were at least 200 years old, although individual trees varied in age and size.
"One degree warmer may not seem like a lot, but the effects can be cumulative and put many more trees under stress, and cause a few more trees to die than used to," Harmon said. "Over long periods of time that can change the whole composition of the forest.""ORIGINAL SOURCE: CBC
No comments:
Post a Comment